Poll shows majority support gay marriage, Tabor II
An independent poll released Wednesday shows a majority of likely voters oppose the "people's veto" aimed at overturning Maine's gay marriage law.
Polling shows 51 percent of respondents would vote "no" on Question 1 if the election were held today and another 1 percent say they're learning toward a "no" vote. Some 43 percent of respondents said they are either planning or leaning toward a "yes" vote to overturn the law, according to the survey by Pan Atlantic SMS Group.
The "Omnibus Poll", which sought Mainers opinions on a host of state and national issues, was conducted by staffers at the Portland-based opinion research firm between Sept. 30 and Oct. 7. It was administered to 401 Mainers who were both registered voters and identified themselves as "likely" to vote in the November elections. The poll's margin of error is 4.9 percent.
Mark Sullivan, a spokesperson for the No on 1 campaign, called the results "encouraging" but added that the race was far from over. "We have no reason to believe this is going to be anything but a razor thin election," he said in a Wednesday telephone interview.
The survey also showed an ad blitz by the Yes on 1 campaign predicting gay marriage would be taught in public schools isn't resonating with voters. Only 31 percent of respondents believed gay marriage would be taught to children while 62 percent said that wouldn't be the result.
Marc Mutty, campaign coordinator for Stand for Marriage Maine, the premier Yes on 1 group, called those results surprising. "This does surprise me, and it surprises me a lot, because our polling indicates quite the contrary, that the message does resonate."
Mutty said the overall poll showing the "No" side with a 9 percent lead also didn't mesh with their own internal data. "I tend to discount this a little bit," he said.
Among Catholics, poling shows 43 percent plan to vote no and 50 percent plan to vote yes. Sullivan said that split wasn't surprising "because we have heard from many Catholics who've said they ... believe marriage equality is a matter of civil law and not church doctrine."
Support for repealing the gay marriage law was highest among Republicans 64 percent respectively saying they're inclined to vote "Yes" on 1, compared with just 24 percent of Democrats.
Survey results indicated Mainers are open to both ballot questions aimed at reducing taxes. Question 4, which would cap state and local government spending at the rate of inflation and require voter approval for tax increases, is favored by 53 percent of Mainers. Some 39 percent oppose the question, known as a taxpayer bill of rights or TABOR, and 8.5 percent are undecided.
Question 2, which would cut excise taxes by 55 percent on standard vehicles less than six years old and exempt hybrid and fuel-efficient vehicles from sales tax and three years of excise tax, is a dead heat. Some 48 percent of Mainers support lowering excise tax rates while 46 percent are opposed. Roughly 6 percent are undecided.
James Melcher, an associate professor of Political Science at University of Maine at Farmington, predicted gay marriage and Tabor questions would go down to the wire.
"Looking at issues dealing with gay rights and Tabor in past, those positions have tended to lose support as we've gotten closer to the election," he said. "In both cases, it suggests a close race."
According to the survey, Question 3, to repeal the 2007 school consolidation law, appears too close to call, with 46 percent in favor of repeal and 41 percent opposed. Almost 13 percent are undecided.
Question 6, a $71 million bond measure to improve state infrastructure, is supported by about 70 percent of respondents, with 23 percent opposed and 8 percent undecided, the poll finds.
A majority of Mainers still support President Barack Obama's job performance, although the number has slipped since a similar poll in April. Some 58 percent of Mainers rate Obama favorably, down from 68 percent in April. Obama's unfavorable rating has increased to 38 percent, up from 24 percent in April.
The survey shows Mainers are plenty anxious about the nation's health care system, with 53 percent saying it is either "Poor" or "Very Poor." More than 57 percent support a nonprofit government-backed health insurance plan, known as the "public option," to compete against for-profit plans from health corporations, while 37 percent oppose such a plan.
